Flexible koala conservation on private land under climate change

Frankie Cho

University of Queensland

Flexible adaptation

  • Koalas declared endangered in NSW, QLD and ACT

  • Climate change threatens koala habitat

  • NSW Koala Strategy: 7,000ha koala habitat to be protected on NSW private land by 2025

7,000ha koala habitat on private land

Koala habitat: KITL index > 0.25

CC: Enough protection under current conditions

RI: Robust but inflexible protection

F: Flexible protection – add new covenants in 2050

F+L: Flexible protection + learning and adapting to climate change

Flexible adaptation 50% more cost-effective

CC: $51M ($44-61M)

RI: $108M ($101-117M)

F: $72M ($63-81M) – 37% cost reduction

Flexible + Learning: $59M ($48-74M) – 49% cost reduction

Flexibility: adding protection more valuable than ending

CC: $51M ($44-61M)

RI: $108M ($101-117M)

F: $72M ($63-81M) – 37% cost reduction

Key findings

  • Strategic flexibility alters first-stage decisions

  • Flexibility mitigates trade-offs between maximizing conservation outcomes and managing risks

  • Flexibility to offer new covenants much more valuable than flexibility to end interventions